Best Picture 2022 – The objective criteria
Many factors go in to predicting the Best Picture winner. Some like buzz and campaigning are hard or even impossible to measure, but others are not. We have found 10 measurable and objective criteria that a Best Picture winner statistically must fulfill and applied them to all ten Best Picture nominees. Let’s start by spoiling the whole thing and say that none of the nominees fulfills all 10 criteria. But some come pretty close.
If we look back at the previous years, we can see that a Best Picture winner generally must fulfill at least six of these criteria to win the big award.
But let’s first look at the 10 criteria:
Best Director nomination
Only five films has won Best Picture without a nomination for Best Director and two of these were in the very first years of Oscar. However, another two of these (Green Book and Argo) has been within the time of the preferential ballot. But they are still only two out of the 12 preferential ballot winners, so the director nomination is still important.
Best Screenplay nomination (original or adapted)
If we disregard the first couple of years of Oscar history, only three films have won Best Picture without a screenplay nomination. The last film to do so was Titanic in 1998, so a nomination for screenplay is still vital.
Acting nominations
Although the actors branch of The Academy is no longer as dominant as it used to be, it is still the largest branch, so the actors backing is very important. If we look at Oscar history since the supporting categories were introduced, only nine films have won Best Picture without any acting nominations. Parasite in 2020 was the last film to do so.
Best Editing nomination
In 2015 Birdman broke one of the longest standing Oscar records and became the first film to win Best Picture without an editing nomination since Ordinary People in 1981. Only 10 films have won Best Picture without this nomination.
Total nominations
Just 14 films have won Best Picture with less than seven total nominations and six of these were in the first years of Oscar where there were very few categories. Another six of these has won in this millennium and the past three winners have had less than seven total nominations. So, this might not be the most significant criteria on the list.
Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Ensemble nomination
SAG introduced their ensemble category in 1996, and since then only four films has won Best Picture without a SAG Ensemble nomination. The first was ‘Braveheart’ in 1996, but then we had to wait until The Shape of Water in 2018 for a new case. But that also means that three out of the past four Best Picture winners didn’t have a SAG Ensemble nomination. So again, this criteria might turn out to be outdated in a few years.
Producers Guild Awards (PGA) winner
PGA is interesting because they use the same voting system as the Oscars. During the era of the preferential ballot nine out of 12 Best Picture winners also won PGA. And since 1990 there have only been eight Best Picture winners without a PGA win.
BAFTA nomination for Best Picture
BAFTA has existed for a long time, but it only gained significance for the American Award Season in 1996. Since then, only Braveheart (1996) and Million Dollar Baby (2005) has won Best Picture Oscars without a Best Picture nomination at BAFTA. BAFTA did however change their voting system last year, but which impact that might have on this criteria is too early to tell.
Theatrical release date
It only makes sense to look at the era of the preferential ballot for this one. The 12 preferential ballot winners had their US release date in these months:
November – 5 winners
October – 4 winners
December – 1 winner
June – 1 winner
February – 1 winner
The February winner was last year’s Nomadland, which was release in the same year as the ceremony due to the extended eligibility period. But it looks like October and November are the best months to have a Best Picture release.
Festival screenings
Every single winner in the preferential ballot era have had a screening at one of the significant Award Season festivals: Sundance, Berlin, Cannes, Venice, Telluride and Toronto. On average Best Picture winners have had screenings at 2,3 of these festivals. Green Book is the only winner to be screened at only one of these festivals.
With that in mind, let’s look at how each of this year’s Best Picture nominees did.
The Power of the Dog
Plus
- Best Director nomination
- Screenplay nomination
- 4 acting nominations (Best Actor, 2xBest Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress)
- Editing nomination
- 12 total nominations
- BAFTA Best Picture winner
- Release: November
- Screened at Venice, Telluride and Toronto
Minus
- No SAG Ensemble nomination
- No PGA award (but was nominated)
Belfast
Plus
- Best Director nomination
- Screenplay nomination
- 2 acting nominations (Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress)
- 7 total nominations
- SAG Ensemble nomination
- BAFTA Best Picture nomination
- Release: November
- Screened at Telluride and Toronto
Minus
- No editing nomination
- No PGA award (but was nominated)
Dune
Plus
- Screenplay nomination
- Editing nomination
- 10 total nominations
- BAFTA Best Picture nomination
- Release: October
- Screened at Venice and Toronto
Minus
- No Best Director nomination
- No acting nominations
- No SAG Ensemble nomination
- No PGA award (but was nominated)
King Richard
Plus
- Screenplay nomination
- 2 acting nominations (Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress)
- Editing nomination
- SAG Ensemble nomination
- Release: November
- Screened at Telluride
Minus
- No Best Director nomination
- 6 total nominations
- No PGA award (but was nominated)
- No BAFTA Best Picture nomination
CODA
Plus
- Screenplay nomination
- 1 acting nomination (Best Supporting Actor)
- SAG Ensemble winner
- PGA winner
- Screened at Sundance
Minus
- No Best Director nomination
- No editing nomination
- 3 total nominations
- No BAFTA Best Picture nomination
- Release: August
Don’t Look Up
Plus
- Screenplay nomination
- Editing nomination
- SAG Ensemble nomination
- BAFTA Best Picture nomination
Minus
- No Best Director nomination
- No acting nominations
- 4 total nominations
- No PGA award (but was nominated)
- Release: December
- No festival screenings
Drive My Car
Plus
- Best Director nomination
- Screenplay nomination
- Release: November
- Screened at Cannes and Toronto
Minus
- No acting nominations
- No editing nomination
- 4 total nominations
- No SAG Ensemble nomination
- No PGA award (and no nomination)
- No BAFTA Best Picture nomination
Licorice Pizza
Plus
- Best Director nomination
- Screenplay nomination
- BAFTA Best Picture nomination
- Release: November
Minus
- No acting nominations
- No editing nomination
- 3 total nominations
- No SAG Ensemble nomination
- No PGA award (but was nominated)
- No festival screenings
West Side Story
Plus
- Best Director nomination
- 1 acting nomination (Best Supporting Actress)
- 7 total nominations
Minus
- No screenplay nomination
- No editing nomination
- No SAG Ensemble nomination
- No PGA award (but was nominated)
- No BAFTA Best Picture nomination
- Release: December
- No festival screenings
Nightmare Alley
Plus
- Nothing
Minus
- No Best Director nomination
- No screenplay nomination
- No acting nominations
- No editing nomination
- 4 total nominations
- No SAG Ensemble nomination
- No PGA award (and no nomination)
- No BAFTA Best Picture nomination
- Release: December
- No festival screenings
Conclusion
Only four of this year’s nominees meets at least six of the criteria. Many see The Power of the Dog as this year’s favorite, and it is also leading the pack in this analysis together with Belfast. The other films meeting at least six criteria are Dune and King Richard. Many experts are right now predicting CODA to win Best Picture, but CODA only meets five of the 10 criteria.
According to experts, the duel is between CODA and The Power of the Dog, but according to this analysis The Power of the Dog looks like the best candidate. But the lack of a SAG Ensemble nomination does hurt its chances as the actors are still very influential in The Academy. That being said, The Power of the Dog did get three individual SAG nominations and four Oscar acting nominations, so it would be safe to assume that the actors like the film. Three of the last four Best Picture winners were not SAG Ensemble nominees either, so this is not as big a minus as it might look like. The Power of the Dog did not win PGA either, although it was nominated. It lost to CODA which is quite a big minus. Both because CODA is the challenger, but also because PGA uses the same preferential ballot and has generally been a great predicter.
When it comes to CODA, it seems like a big minus to have missed out on nominations for editing and directing. With only three nominations it seems like the support is not that widespread. And the missing backing from the director’s branch is also a problem because this branch is generally the most arthouse friendly and Eurocentric part of The Academy. That means that the film might not score as big with the international voters, which The Academy have had an increasing number of in recent years. This is further enhanced by the lack of a BAFTA Best Picture nomination.
So according to the objective criteria The Power of the Dog will win against CODA but will be in fierce competition with Belfast. But there are other criteria than the objective ones, so we will have to hold our breath until Sunday.
