Acting races by the numbers – post Critics Choice and Golden Globes nominations

Let’s face it. The Golden Globes does not have the same significance this year as they used to. Only time will tell whether they will regain their significance, but it will still be interesting to see how the Critics Choice and Golden Globes nominations match up in a historical context.

We are looking at acting races since 2004. Before 2004 Critics Choice had less than 5 nominees, so these years would be hard to compare to the following.

We are especially looking at how the combination of a Critics Choice (CC) nomination and a Golden Globes (GG) nomination increases the chances of an Oscar nomination.

BEST ACTRESS

The past 18 years, 88 actresses have received the Critics Choice and Golden Globes nominations combo. Of these 73 (83%) has managed to get an Oscar nomination as well. Only 3 actresses has been Oscar nominated without any of these two nominations.

This year the following six actresses has received the combo:

Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Of these actresses 4,98 of them will statistically get an Oscar nomination. This means that the numbers indicate that the five Oscar nominees should be found between the six actresses above.

BEST ACTOR

91 actors have received the combo in the past 18 years. 72 (79%) of them went on to become Oscar nominated. Only 6 actors have been nominated without GG or CC nominations.

This year the following five actors received the combo:

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Of these, 3,95 of them should statistically be Oscar nominated. This means that one of these actors would miss out on an Oscar nomination and leave an empty space.

Sponsored content:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The possibility of gaining the combo is harder in the supporting races, as the Golden Globes only have one supporting category for each gender, while it has two lead categories for each gender. None the less 70 actresses has received the supporting combo and 61 (87%) of these went on to become Oscar nominated. Only 8 have been Oscar nominated without CC or GG nominations.

The following four actresses received the combo this year:

Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aujanue Ellis (King Richard)

Of these 3,48 should be Oscar nominated. This means that three of these actresses should be safe, while the last person is still on the fence. But who is whom we don’t know.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

66 actors has received the supporting combo, while 56 (85%) has received Oscar nominations. 11 actors has received nominations without any of these two nominations.

The following four actors has received the combo this year:

Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Of these 3,4 should be Oscar nominated. So just like supporting actress it seems three of these actors are safe while one is on the fence.

WHAT ABOUT THE REST?

So where does this leave all the actors and actresses who did not get the combo? Well, we can see that chances are quite slim if you do not have either a Critics Choice or Golden Globes nomination. But what about the other big precursor – Screen Actors Guild (SAG)?

For those who did not receive any nominations on Monday chances look slim. In the past 18 years no one was nominated for Best Actress with only a SAG nomination and neither nominations from Golden Globes or Critics Choice. Only Damian Bichir (A Better Life) (2012) managed to get the Best Actor Oscar nomination without CC or GG, but only SAG.  In the supporting categories it has happened 3 times for Best Supporting Actress and 4 times for Best Supporting Actor. In 18 years.

So what about those who were nominated for either CC or GG but not both? If these actors and actresses receive a SAG nomination they might have a chance. In the lead categories only 13 has received a CC+SAG combo, but 9 (69%) of these has gone on to get an Oscar nomination.  The number is slightly higher (75%) for Best Actress than for Best Actor (67%). So there are still hope for Nicolas Cage (Pig) who was the only CC lead nominee this year, who did not receive a GG nomination.

In the supporting categories the CC+SAG combo is even better. 27 actors and actresses have received this combo and 21 (78%) of them went on to become Oscar nominated. Supporting actors has a slightly better chance with 79% while supporting actresses has 77%. This gives hope for early supporting actress frontrunner Ann Dowd (Mass), as well as Rita Moreno (West Side Story). Of the actors both Jared Leto (House of Gucci) and J. K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) looks to be able to benefit from a possible CC+SAG combo.

If we look at the GG+SAG combo a much different picture emerges. In the lead categories 14 people have received the combo, but only 6 (43%) went on to become Oscar nominees. This means you are more likely to not get nominated with a GG+SAG combo than you are to get nominated. This is bad news for GG nominees like Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) and Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up).

For supporting actors and actresses the picture is slightly better. Here 12 people have received the GG+SAG combo and 7 (58%) have gone on to get an Oscar nomination. Only two people can get this combo: Ruth Negga (Passing) and Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar). If both get the combo at least one of them is statistically likely to get nominated.

But one thing is statistics another thing is reality. And with Golden Globes in big trouble we might see the Golden Globes nominations being worth even less this year. And maybe this means that the CC+SAG combo will prove more valuable than the CC+GG combo. Only time will tell, but we will be watching and analyzing.

Click here to view more acting stats and trivia

Sponsored content: